Alternate Scenarios: The World’s Most Important Graph

You are probably familiar with Steve Sailer’s “World’s Most Important Graph,” which projects Europe’s and Africa’s population growth based on current trends:

GRPG1
Below is my version of Sailer’s graph, in which I took the liberty of assuming two sets of alternate scenarios changing those trends, beginning arbitrarily in 2030.

  • Europe’s Scenario A suggests that a discarding of liberalism would create a population growth that would then plateau at a sustainable level.
  • Africa’s Scenario B1 (dashed line) shows what would happen if West withdrew all humanitarian aid (food, medicine, sanitation, water engineering, peacekeeping) from Africa.
  • Africa’s Scenario B2  (solid line) assumes some form of responsible humanitarian aid combined with a hands-off policy.

Gr6

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36 thoughts on “Alternate Scenarios: The World’s Most Important Graph

  1. The idea that a nation must grow or die has always struck as most likely specious. The only organism in nature with a growth pattern like that is cancer.

  2. @ Brian

    If only we lived under a political system that depended on raw numbers of human beings’ participation in order to gain power, it would go a long way towards partially explaining such a mindset.

  3. Pingback: Alternate Scenarios: The World’s Most Important Graph | Reaction Times

  4. “The only organism in nature with a growth pattern like that is cancer.”
    Cancer, bacteria, protozoa – we’ve seen this pattern before.

    When 2100 rolls around,
    Who is going to fund the EBT?
    Who is going to supply humanitarian aid?
    Who is going to grow and distribute the food?

    What happens to that sharply inclined red line when the host finally dies?

  5. The only one I care about is the dashed line. You ever read Kim duToit’s opinion on the subject? A South African, he wrote a nice piece titled “Let Africa Sink”. Eye-opening.

    That dashed line isn’t a fairy tale. If we stopped feeding them, they’d starve and die. If we stopped drilling water wells for them, they’d die. If we stopped treating their illnesses, they’d die.

  6. So in fact, the mad “white” liberals of the West are perpetuating what would ultimately become to be seen as a mass self-annihilation (black African killing black African). And this is, in fact, the “crime” of segregation… The “crime” of accelerating the annihilation of the “black” collective. So in the meta-scheme, “white” liberals are a mere buffer to extend, indefinitely, this process of prolific breeding accompanied by excessively brutal mortality, but nonetheless, still maintaining above-replacement level fertility. And we “see” this same scenario with that Muzz.

    The healthy-minded white man cannot be a perpetuating self-annihilator and neither can the “white” liberal. The latter desire Final Liberation. And it’s all coming together.

  7. … looks like Malthus wasn’t wrong, as all the optimists have been fond of repeating since, well since the Essay came out.

  8. No… Malthus wasn’t quite correct because it is ultimately the moral perversion of the “jewhite” self-annihilator that is responsible for both the dramatic decrease in the number of whites with the concurrent exponential explosion of the global “black” collective and madmuzz.

  9. The alt-rite likes to label this morally perverted phenomenon a “pathological altruism” which is really passive cuckspeak for ideologically induced “white” self-annihilation. The former SOLIDIFIES IN THE MIND of he who is afflicted that he is not BURDENED by God-ordained free will while the latter imposes a God-ordained free will on his choice of racial extinction. The former LOGICALLY NECESSITATES a total eradication. The latter offers an opportunity for separation before an eventual annihilation of one or the other.

  10. So… a few points…

    First of all, is Africa really that completely dependent on our aid for survival? I thought foreign aid is just a scam that gets mostly wasted anyhow. I thought when White liberals go to Africa to volunteer they are just glamorizing themselves and not helping. I thought the money we throw at Africa wasn’t really doing anything.

    So I would be surprised to learn that Africa is now dependent on our pointless aid that usually gets appropriated by the first corrupt “official” that gets his hands on it.

    It’s true I don’t actually know much about the dark continent, as it’s no longer of great interest to me. But, I would be interested in seeing data to support those red curves.

    Anyhow, it’s probable China is gonna start colonizing it soon.

    And in regards to the blue curve… errr…

    I’m not trying to sound like a broken record or anything. But “rejecting liberalism” is pretty vague. It reminds me of how White Nationalists think we just make the djooze go away or something and White women will somehow just magically transform overnight from Tinder skanks with 30 dicks a year into loyal, pregnant homemakers. Like Voila.

    We’re deducing a pretty hard and specific real-world result from a pretty sketchy “change” there.

  11. And another thing,
    with a culling like that in Africa, it would be the strongest and smartest who survived. Unlike our race who is breeding the laziest, weakest scum and contracepting all our good genes out of existence. A high death rate means high evolutionary pressure. At our current rate of genetic degeneration we may be weaker than the Black race in a hundred years, regardless of our past glory. So equal numbers may not save us.

  12. I AGREE WITH HERETIC PHI — THOSE ARE TWO VERY BIG “IF’S”…BETTER TO GET TO WORK TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. OTHERWISE THEY’LL JUST BE PRETTY CHARTS ON THE SCREEN AND IN 30-50 YEARS WE’LL ALL BE OVERRUN WITH THE WORST KINDS OF SUBHUMAN TRASH.

  13. –“First of all, is Africa really that completely dependent on our aid for survival? I thought foreign aid is just a scam that gets mostly wasted anyhow”

    Africa does not need the West to survive. It needs Western food, medical care, sanitation and water engineering to explode in population beyond their ecosystem’s carrying capacity.

    –“But “rejecting liberalism” is pretty vague”

    It’s a simple graph. Interpret liberalism broadly.

    –“Unlike our race who is breeding the laziest, weakest scum and contracepting all our good genes out of existence””

    Overstated.

    –“IN 30-50 YEARS WE’LL ALL BE OVERRUN WITH THE WORST KINDS OF SUBHUMAN TRASH”

    They’ve been relying on our cooperation in overrunning us: bait them with welfare, transport them here, decline to use deadly force at our borders. As Vox Day has been saying, a Greek or Italian patrol boat sinking one or more refugee boats on the Mediterranean would have prevented a much greater number of deaths that are going to result from this host-aided invasion.

  14. Would you be able to make a similar chart for what white vs non-white demographics in the US, or states like Texas, would look like if similar scenarios played out? I’ve often wondered how much we could fix if we returned white birth rates to early 1960s levels.

  15. It is quite interesting to consider, that this is all going to happen, like now. That it is already happening.

    People living in the slums of the third world in India and South America are already experiencing it.

    Middle Americans however are about the most protected and isolated people. I like this lifestyle (sort of), but no way will it last.

    Trump isn’t realtalking on that theme. The theme of how we have to live more modestly.

    Of course people cannot do it; game theory determines that people can not live more modestly, as long as those who do not get an advantage (from not living more modestly).

    Eventually modest (local) living is advantageous.

    It is going to be apocolyptic. Ten or twenty years of descent and something of Fortress America. Pity the children.

    Even if there are resources enough to produce food and water and shelter for billions of people, can they possible be managed and distributed? No they cannot, except on the level of a refugee camp.

  16. White people here in this suburb could easily enough grow enough food with the available dirt, but how things shake out is gonna be messed up.

    As a typical example, of the local scene. A public golf course is not making any money and they want to do something else with it, and they want to build residences. It is prime green grass, and why not make it into community grounds and a workspace for real life agriculture.

    But instead it is just a tax base to be developed and taxed; “the community” does not have the VOLITION, it lacks an Intentional Superstructure along which to deploy any life energy to do something good.

    Forward motion and “progress” is the default track. Almost NO ONE wants more cheap housing, modern housing units which are ugly. Public opinion is a 100 to 1 against it – but somehow the political process itself is in control of what happens to that land. It is not public space somehow, though it is owned by the municipality.

    It is that “urban renewal” from the 60s, still in effect.

    For what it is worth, i don’t think they will get it developed. There has been a huge backlash on another local project, which is a paved trail in the Minnesota River Valley. Which no one wants. All the locals who go down and spend time there, such as me, are PISSED OFF, in my case to the point where well never mind – and there is community activism against it at a ration of 100 to 1 … but they do it anyways.

    The process of development itself, is the deciding factor in the decision. Development is our guiding principal. The business of America of business.

    This is a fundamental criticism of White America, and probably THE primary MISSING element in White Identity, is that we do not create meaningful living space, for ourselves.

    There is your starting point, to describe the failure of white people. I don’t give a shit for these suburbs, do you?

    And it continues to this day, the stupid looking mayor and his pro-business platform.

  17. I don’t see a solution.

    It will come to race war, and total war at that. And white people themselves will not evolve to live within this paradise. That is a pipe dream that never was.

    It is a sad deal.

  18. “with a culling like that in Africa, it would be the strongest and smartest who survived. Unlike our race who is breeding the laziest, weakest scum and contracepting all our good genes out of existence.”

    Well, follow my tracks at work for a day and trust that you’ll conclude that my paternal ancestors aren’t exactly engaging in survival-of-the-fittest genetics, either. Can’t speak with authority re. patterns back in The Motherland —– but here stateside, i guarantee that our fertility rates are leading that proverbial ‘race to the bottom.”

  19. I know that is all angry and cynical, and furthermore, that on the personal it is incumbent on every one to not get bogged down in it.

    I have been tired out lately. I don’t think it’s just age, i think there may be a brain tumor.

    But that aside, i listened to the latest Kunstler cast, if anyone is interested. As i have said before, that guy is a source for me because he expresses well the criticisms of “progress” and the modern living arrangement and how aesthetics gets chopped up and processed into gruel, all in the name of efficiency; but on questions of ethnic identity he is problematic.

    Also he and his guest are engaged in that ever-so-predictable UMC status signaling that they can’t support Trump. His guest was criticizing the establishment politicians to no end, and saying that Trump was a great relief from all that, but hey, he would never vote for him! People and their programming.

    But deluded fool that he was in that, this guest made an excellent observation on the nature of being local, and how that was all antithetical to “progress” and its expression in the American Dream. He cited the old saw,

    He’s not going anywhere

    And how, instead of being a praise for a doughty character true to his roots and upon whom you can rely, what it means in America today, is loser. He aint goin anywhere (he’s a loser). And correspondingly,

    She’s going places

    About whom a girl who won’t be stuck here in this damned place, she’s gonna get the hell out of here.

    Well why does this place have to be a shithole, why can’t we make it nice place? And then white advocates want to brag about white accomplishment and white technology and white innovation, and use that as a basis for why we deserve America. We made a shithole out of this place. Or at least i don’t know where you live. This place was nice in 50s when the population was ten-thousand, and now it’s not (so much), and who is to blame?

    One thing that guest of his, Bill Kauffman, said which i wish i could have corrected him on: in his unwillingness to support Trump, he said that he was a “localist” whereas Trump is a nationalist, and that therefore they were opposites. Well someone should have told him that the opposite of a localist would be globalist. Whether or not a nationalist needs be in opposition to a localist, is an open question, though i would say that they need not be opposed; though a criticism of Trump is exactly that that question is not resolved.

  20. There is your starting point, to describe the failure of white people. I don’t give a shit for these suburbs, do you?

    Years back I recall seeing some environmental rankings type of article that held that Minnetonka was the ‘nicest suburb’ in America, whatever that exactly means.

    I notice that the ‘anchor’ or city-bordering suburbs in Milwaukee and Chicago have a bit more character and heft because they’re older and maintain more socio-ethnic folklore than the newer and more pristine anchor burbs in The Twin Cities; even there, you see a difference between Minneapolis and St. Paul (the latter reminds me of Milwaukee and is nicer architectually, IMO).

    Burbs like Apple Valley and St. Louis Park, if i have it right without doublechecking, look more like interior burbs in Chicago, which came about in more recent decades. There’s clearly more coin in the Twin Cities; those insufferable gated McMansion communities, in which you see eons of newly erected $2 million dollar homes, four-per man-made lake, that looik and feel like they’re were built last week. You see those outside Chi, of course —- but Waaaaay outside, like St. Charles, a good 45 miles west of downtown.

    Take aesthetic comfort or revenge in the fact that, if Chicago could do things all over again and maximize development profit 21st-century style, they’d get rid of all the folksy charms of their city-border suburbs erected in the 1920s and replace them with thos aforementioned McMansions.

  21. “A public golf course is not making any money and they want to do something else with it, and they want to build residences. It is prime green grass, and why not make it into community grounds and a workspace for real life agriculture”

    Actually, you might be able to find suitable crunchy SWPL types to take this on. Hell, make it an organic, free range sheep meadow or something. Problem is the government will regulate the bejeesus out of it, making it 50 times more difficult to do than it should be.

    And naturally, they want to build residences. You think palms ain’t getting greased all along the way? Of course they are. Our local governments are often the most corrupt of all, which is saying something! Hell, I just saw in the mail today that my local LIBRARY has us voting on its budget of NINE MILLION DOLLARS. There are TWO — count ’em, two — actual library buildings. Nine MEEELLLLIIIOOOONNNN dollars to run it for a year. Amazing.

    The most amazing thing is why the hell didn’t I get in on this gubmint scam ages ago? Big mistake.

  22. “those insufferable gated McMansion communities, in which you see eons of newly erected $2 million dollar homes, four-per man-made lake, that looik and feel like they’re were built last week.”

    I can’t hate such places enough. I may be an outlier here, but say what you will, a brownstone walkup in Park Slope Brooklyn is vastly preferable to such suburban monstrosities. But of course, thanks to globalism, you have to be a millionaire to have a two bedroom apartment in Park Slope. It’s a rich person’s world. We just get to live in it.

  23. “those insufferable gated McMansion communities, in which you see eons of newly erected $2 million dollar homes, four-per man-made lake, that looik and feel like they’re were built last week.”

    I loove, loove, looove the idea of McMansions!! The more the better. They’re building a major movie studio near me and I’m just waiting for some California film industry bigwig types to come and buy out my lot so they can tear it all down and put up something huge, hulking and gaudy. I will be laughing all the way to the bank. cha-ching

  24. ElK:
    “He’s not going anywhere

    And how, instead of being a praise for a doughty character true to his roots and upon whom you can rely, what it means in America today, is loser. He aint goin anywhere (he’s a loser). And correspondingly,

    ‘She’s going places’

    About whom a girl who won’t be stuck here in this damned place, she’s gonna get the hell out of here.”
    This is one of the main problems with our demographic winter.
    Young, fertile women all migrate to the big cities in droves, where it’s exciting and fashionable. Also, most of the work there is commercial so in addition to universities it’s slanted towards female workers.

    All of the Man’s jobs, the primary and secondary industry, be it forestry, mining, fishing, agriculture, or what have you, is done in rural areas.

    So the man stay in the country where it’s good to raise a family, to work the forests and the mountains and the fields, while all of our fertile young wombs flock to the city to live a sterile life in the glow of the mythical Alphas at the top of the skyscrapers, where an extra bedroom for a child is priced out of what normal person can afford.

    You have to be in the city to get any decent pussy, because all of them go there within a couple years of graduating unless their knocked up.

    I had a lot of anger issues a few years ago, where I had finally “made it” in life, I was 30ish and ready to meet someone to settle down and start a family, but my career was in this small out-of-the-way city of about 30k inhabitants. And there were NO fucking single young women of my own race ANYWHERE. It was like a 3 hour drive to the nearest single young white woman.
    All there were were overweight sluts 3 years from menopause with 2-4 kids who literally had attractive, moneyed men lined up for them because there was nothing else in the city.

    One day I was visiting the nearest metropolis about 5 hours away where it seemed all the girls were migrating to. I LITERALLY saw more beautiful young white women in their prime strolling down a moderately bustling street in 30 SECONDS than I had seen in 8 months of living in the aforementioned town of 30,000 people. Now, while I had now become more successful in life than most men, a 3-bedroom house in that area runs for around 2 mil and I could never afford one.

    This was a major “aha” moment for me about our race’s cratering population, that we can’t survive under a social structure that doesn’t contain hypergamy.

  25. Heretic Phi…

    I’ve been in the bar business for twenty years. “Hypergamy” is not the dominate operating paradigm for the everyday white female. In fact, the now cliched repetition of memetic “hypergamy” HAS HAD THE EXACT OPPOSITE EFFECT when perceived in conjunction with the imposition of the equally dubious “equality” meme (in fact, claiming ALL (white) females hypergamous is a subtle nod to egalitarianism). The reality is that liberated “white” female is not only being shamed for “manning up,” but she is downright performing acts of “repentance” by sexually delving into degenerately low males. The RESULT of the hypergamous meme + equality meme = liberated “white” female falling into a deep sexual degeneracy.

    IF ONLY white females WERE TRULY DESIROUS of great white men?

    And when one recognizes that the liberated “white” females is not really desirous of a great white man THEN the charge of “hypergamy” loses all its “umph!”

  26. Those graphs become even more alarming for white people when you superimpose the fiscal realities we are facing in the coming decades, for example

    this: http://bit.ly/1MmQ5KR

    or this: http://bit.ly/1M7VPxk

    and this: http://tpc.io/1TOriqJ

    We are looking at a future of massive unprecedented wealth transfers from young to old, with no plausible course corrections in sight. What happens to a society that apportions its resources thusly? When it stops investing in schools, infrastructure, military, and instead spends its treasure on hip replacements and nursing homes? Well, we’ve seen what happened in Greece and Spain. Taxes go higher and higher, and the revenue is dumped into unproductive sectors of the economy (i.e. nursing home); less revenue is available to wage earners for investment and consumption. A malaise sets in that quickly turns into an economic death spiral. Why work harder when an increasing share of your earnings goes to the government, and furthermore, none of the spending benefits you?

    This fiscal outlook is well known to everyone in D.C. but it is rarely ever uttered out loud. The AARP, which is more powerful than the NRA, will shut down anyone who touches the Third Rail. I’d suspect that it played a huge role in Rubio’s loss of his home state, given it’s large population of retirees.

    Furthermore, I’d say the above scenario is the more mundane reason that immigration is supported among the establishment. It’s not about white genocide. It’s a desperate attempt to expand the tax base to shore up unsustainable promised entitlements.

  27. This fiscal outlook is well known to everyone in D.C. but it is rarely ever uttered out loud. The AARP, which is more powerful than the NRA, will shut down anyone who touches the Third Rail.

    Yes, I’ve long suspected that ‘the debt’ and ‘we’ve got to balance the budget’ have long become nothing but political bromides that politico players have to pay lip to but know they can’t really do anything about. I recall Perot going on with his charts and markers, explaining how when he was elected he’d nurse us through a two-year austerity spell, from which we’d all come out proud and bountiful. You almost have to give the guy credit for having that much candor and the gall to believe it would make him favored electorally. Certainly no pol, GOP or Dem, has been as forthright since then. Nowadays, there’s that obligatory moment during debates or Sunday news show interviews in which the pol assumes a solemn look and talks about balancing the budget, but both pol and interviewer avoid the catch in each others eyes and suffer through the awkward-but-necessary moment before moving on to how we’re going to keep social security and increase the defense budget to make America safer, etc., ad infinitum, blah-blah.

  28. “When it stops investing in schools, infrastructure, military, and instead spends its treasure on hip replacements and nursing homes?”
    There’s going to be none of the old-age benefits that I pay half my wealth into when it’s time for me. It may sound cruel for me to say the baby boomers should have invested better, but they were the wealthiest generation that ever existed in history, and after the mess they’ve left us I’m counting on the Smith & Wesson Retirement Plan for myself despite having “made it”.

    I’m no libertarian but I agree with Molyneux on this one. I don’t think we should pay it. Children’s future > fogies entitlement.
    Time to legalize euthanasia.

  29. Heretic Phi…

    The economics of healthy perpetuation is “break even.” Both exponential growth and “black market” economics are self-annihilating.

  30. “There’s going to be none of the old-age benefits that I pay half my wealth into when it’s time for me.”

    I’m far from optimistic, and i’m certainly not blind to reality. But it is true that people have been saying what you say in the above quote with dire certainty about social security and other retirment benefits since the early ’70s.

    However, I do know of and take seriously some of the city and state pension defaults that are looming —- though, some of those, too, haven’t been as insolvent as they were originally reported.

  31. The economics of healthy perpetuation is “break even.” Both exponential growth and “black market” economics are self-annihilating.

    Explain that in a way that all of us could clearly understand; I would love to hear a convincing philosophical precipe for financial prudence, but don’t know if i believe such a healing tonic truly exists. That would be something.

    Here’s your big chance, Thor; because I’ve all but given up on you. lolzz!

  32. The economics of healthy perpetuation is “break even.” Both exponential growth and “black market” economics are self-annihilating.

    Explain that in a way that all of us could clearly understand

    In my purview, this is the clearest thing he’s ever said, and he’s 100% correct.

  33. “In my purview, this is the clearest thing he’s ever said, and he’s 100% correct.”

    Yes! Absolutely; about a minute after Camlost’s comment appeared, i was about to say that thor’s comment is that rare gem that comes along about two or three times per-year and actually makes all that burdensome dialectic worth sifting through…..my plea for precipe was delivered!!!!!! lolzz!

  34. i was about to say that thor’s comment is that rare gem that comes along about two or three times per-year and actually makes all that burdensome dialectic worth sifting through…..my plea for precipe was delivered!!!!!! lolzz!

    Yeah, T-Diddy gets a whole lot easier to understand quickly when the subject turns to money. That’s normally a trait found more commonly in… (well, nevermind… won’t go there)

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